Bio [Full CV]
I am an economist working in behavioral economics, experimental economics and microeconomic theory. Topics I am interested in currently: ambiguity, belief updating, complexity, procedural choice and others. I investigate these through theoretical and experimental methods.
Currently, I am a PhD Candidate at the University of Toronto under the supervision of Yoram Halevy and Colin Stewart. Previously, I was a visiting student at the Paris School of Economics. I completed a M.Sc in Economics and Philosophy at the London School of Economics and a B.Sc in Economics, Mathematics and Philosophy at the University of Toronto.
I am on the 2023-2024 job market.
Contact: enhua.hu[at]mail.utoronto.ca
JMP: Confidence in Inference PDF
I study a decision-maker who chooses between objects, each associated with a sample of signals. I axiomatically characterize the set of choices that are consistent with established models of belief updating. A simple thought experiment yields a natural choice pattern that lies outside this set. In particular, the effect of increasing sample size on choice cannot be rationalized by these models. In a controlled experiment, 95% of subjects' choices violate models of belief updating. Using a novel incentive-compatible confidence elicitation mechanism, I find confidence in correctly interpreting samples influences choice. As suggested by the thought experiment, many subjects display a sample size neglect bias which is positively associated with higher confidence.